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Looking towards the future of world urban development, cities of the global south will: urp 30018/17/2023 ![]() ![]() Detailed case studies also highlight the effects of local policies and regulations such as zoning and housing policies 23, floor area ratios 24, subsidies for transport infrastructure and foreign direct investment 25 as additional drivers of ULE. ![]() A more recent theoretical development-the science of cities-points to scaling laws relating urban population, wealth and land area 22. For example, urban economics identifies demand for land as a derivative demand that is shifted by exogenous factors such as population and income. These findings support theory from urban economics and urban science that posit population and income as the primary drivers of ULE. All these studies (local or global) examine potential determinants of ULE (e.g., slope, arable land, temperature, population etc.) and have shown that ULE is driven by many factors, with demographic or economic growth as the primary drivers 19, 20, 21. Each of these studies have focused on either one specific year or one static time period with country-scale GDP data. Only three studies 1, 17, 18 have examined drivers of urban expansion for cities globally. Studies on the determinants of ULE have typically focused on a single city 11, 12, cities in a single country 13, 14 or cities within a region 15, 16. Compact urban growth is positively correlated with improved human health outcomes 8, economic growth 9, energy and resource efficiency 10. Expansive urban growth is strongly linked to higher per capita urban greenhouse gas emissions 3, habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss 4, 5, inefficient use of natural resources 5, and loss of agricultural lands 6, 7. Urban land change affects biogeochemical cycles, regional to global climate, hydrological systems, and biodiversity 2. What explains the physical expansion of cities? Does having more people in urban areas lead to the expansion of urban land? Or does economic activity drive urban land use change? With forecasts of global urban population growth of 2.5 billion between 20, there is an urgent need to understand how this massive demographic shift may affect the expansion of urban land areas. However, there is very little understanding about the relationship of urban population growth and urban land expansion. Urbanization is fundamentally a process including both urban population growth and urban land change 1. ![]()
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